Συντάχθηκε 14-11-2025 11:52
Τόπος:
Σύνδεσμος τηλεδιάσκεψης
Έναρξη: 19/11/2025 18:00
Λήξη: 19/11/2025 19:00
First Name/Surname: Efthalia Karkou
Student Identification Number: 2023057609
Date: 19/11/2025
Time: 18:00
Room / Zoom Link https://tuc-gr.zoom.us/j/97873413818?pwd=m6KG6zGa8PyS1LZNxVKr1jDSE7Urba.1
Title: “The impact of climate change on olive oil production in Greece”
Supervisor: Aristeidis Koutroulis
Three-member committee:
1. Aristeidis Koutroulis
2. Emmanouil Grillakis
3. George Arampatzis
Abstract:
Climate change has a severe impact on the agricultural sector, including the olive crops, in the Mediterranean Basin, particularly in Greece. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the olive oil production and yield in Greece, taking advantage of proper climatic indices. Real olive oil production data from ELSTAT database related to Greece were used and analysed during 2011–2022 to calculate the olive oil yield, identifying the 21 most productive regional unities in olive oil representing 93% of the national olive oil production. Comprehensive literature research on climate change impact assessment studies in the Mediterranean region is carried out with the intention to conclude on the suitable weather conditions and climatic indices commonly measured and used. Based on the findings, a set of climatic indices is selected. These fit-for-purpose temperature-, precipitation-, wind-based as well as composite climatic indices are investigated on how well they correlate with actual olive oil yield data from all regional unities of Greece, which were provided by the ELSTAT database during 2011-2022. The most important predictors for Greece and separately for each regional unity are reported as well as a two-predictors model is developed for each one of them. Rainfall during May-June emerged as the most frequent and statistically significant predictor, confirming the critical role of spring moisture. Regional analysis highlighted severe negative correlations with high maximum temperature (Tmax > 32°C and >35°C), counterbalanced by the positive influence of spring rainfall. The statistically significant climatic indices derived from the two-predictors models are utilised to project the olive oil yield changes in Greece in the future. The future projections are reported using the five (5) Regional Climate Models of ECEARTH_CLMcom, ECEARTH_RCA, ECEARTH_RACMO2, IPSL_WRF, and MPILR_REMO09 for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 during the period 2025-2085. Negligible changes are projected under RCP4.5 but reductions in olive oil yield are projected by −3.1% (near future), −4.7% (middle future) and −1.7% (far future) under RCP8.5. Afterward, the olive oil yield changes are projected for Peloponnese, Crete and the rest of Greece, revealing the slight reduction in Peloponnese (-5.9% in the far future) and the rest of Greece (-6.8% in the far future). On the contrary, a slight increase by up to 4.3% is projected in Crete. These results, considering the short period with available actual olive oil yield data (2011-2022) in Greece, highlight the importance of developing targeted, regional climate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the Greek olive oil sector.
